Germany’s elections were won by CDU and Friedrich Merz are likely to form a coalition government with the SDP and the great election losers. Does what does this mean for the climate? Mattias Goldmann describes the possible development in five points.
1. No German increased climate action – nor return return
The previous government of the German coalition could not agree on the measures needed to achieve the binding targets of the 2030 national climate and a number of political issues were left unresolved. But in the 2025 elections, climate issues were not in focus-the environment and climate were ranked only in fifth with 13% support compared to 22% in the 2021 elections. A reduced climate focus can be seen as an explanation for the regression of the elections, but the success of the Right-wing Populist AFD was not associated with their climate. And the German liberals on the FDP failed in their attempt to gain voter support for an agenda of reduced climate ambitions.
In essence, the election results support a continuation of the set climate policies, with the CDU, stressing that the purpose of climate neutrality remains by 2045, as well as the under-a decline in emissions of 65% by 2030. One main advantage for CDU is the increase in carbon taxes, while the SDP focuses on stimulating the transformation of the heating and transport sector – expect a mixture of both.
2. The Focus Transport Sector – but the support of the small industry
It was almost irresistible for the CDU to blame the serious problems of the German car industry over the previous government, but Merz has not been particularly suitable for the desire of the car industry to increase long -term transition support. CDU essentially wants to allow the market to prevail and stimulate fuels better than reset the abolished bonus for the electric car, despite the strong popular support it would enjoy.
A large investment in the railway also has strong popular support, including the permanent making of Deutschland ticket, which is currently decided year by year. But it is expensive, the treasure is in poor condition and the CDU has not raised this to its electoral manifesto.
3. Energy market: promises for lower prices – but how?
Expensive electricity and gas for companies and families became an important issue of elections. CDU has promised that part of today’s climate support will go to lower electricity costs, which, along with lowering electricity taxes and network tariffs, is to reduce the price to 0.05 euros per kWh. The CDU is also expected to destroy the requirements that new heating should consist of at least 65% renewable energy, and that new heat pumps should be “ready for hydrogen”, in favor of more flexible and cheaper solutions.
The overall stimulus instead of target investments is at the core of the CDU industrial policy, which is worrying for predecessors such as the plans of the German steel giant Thyssenkrupp for without fossil steel, the date of which 2027 has now been postponed due to political uncertainties.
CDU wants to maintain Germany’s ban on Russian fossil gas (which Sweden continues to allow), and reduce the cost burden by accelerating the transition to green hydrogen – exactly how it remains to be clarified. Germany, which uses more coal for all EU countries, is to remove coal energy by 2038, which the CDU supports, but the policy for new energy sources is more unclear. Merz has called the power of the wind a “transient technology” and suggested that the wind turbines should gradually because they do not look attractive; If this is going to be the government’s policy is unclear. Nuclear energy can receive an incentive, with CDU proposals for small modular reactors, but also the evaluation that the reactors close will not be rebuilt.
4. Climate Adaptation – Who will follow the bill?
Germany has been hit hard by climate -related floods, deaths and great damage. The previous government presented the first legally binding law on climate adaptation and a strategy to protect people and infrastructure against increasingly severe weather events. But funding and responsibility issues were left to resolve the new government with the federal structure of Germany, promising difficult discussions ahead.
5. EU and Global Policies: Leadership Opportunities
The EU policy of the CDU focuses on the best approximation of climate and industrial policy, in accordance with the EU Draghi report, Green Deal and the new pure industrial agreement. However, CDU wants to rip the EU ban in 2035 for new cars with internal combustion engines and further delay the introduction of CSRD and other responsibility requirements.
According to the CDU, Germany can benefit from the fact that relatively small countries will now lead the EU; First Denmark, then Cyprus, Ireland and Lithuania. This gives Germany the opportunity to move forward, for example about the COP30 of the UN in Brazil, where a counterweight to the US government under Trump will be welcomed (the US will leave the Paris Agreement, but has not officially done so). At COP29, Germany was essential for the UN loss and damage fund that received initial funds, with a question of how it will be followed.
Summary: German climate and energy policies remain mainly
The German Bundestag should open no later than 30 days after the election, March 24. The insecure international situation and German internal problems both press CDU and SDP to formalize a government by then. In the field of climate mitigation and adaptation, it is likely to imply policies as described here; Basically a continuation of the way taken in recent years, but with more focus on cost-effectiveness and general policy instruments than specific incentives.
Germany’s climate work under boredom and CDU won’t slip
Mattias Goldmann